Section 1. Emissions Trajectories for Business as Usual and Stabilization below Doubling
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چکیده
Our Business As Usual (BAU) carbon emissions (or, equivalently, CO2 emissions) simply continue to grow for the next fifty years with the 1.5%/y average growth rate of the past three decades. The corresponding emissions path, shown in Fig. S1(A), starts at 7.0 GtC/y in 2004 and rises at 1.53%/y to 15.0 GtC/y in 2054. A carbon emissions trajectory that increases linearly with the same cumulative emissions (525 GtC) rises to 14.0 GtC/y in 2054. This linear-increase scenario, or “ramp” scenario, conceptually easier to work with, is our BAU emissions scenario in all subsequent sections of the Supporting On-Line Material.
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